Luxurious consumption: (not) for everyone?


Since the beginning of mankind, evolution has gone far changing fundamentally the way we live our daily life despite little or no change in our biology since thousands of years: we now have healthcare, language, our habits.

Still the most fundamental things of our nature did not change much.


Humans’ most basic needs did not disappear as we are still subject to biology (we need safety, sheltering, food, sleep…). But steering from survival we also have needs that, still biological, are necessary for a pleasant existence. The overall desire to feel accomplished, recognized and respected is one of them.

The american psychologist Abraham Harold Maslow theorized about human needs as being hierarchical. He put the Esteem needs towards the top of the pyramid in his famous Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs chart. The framework is still used today as the basis for many consumer psychology studies (brand managers know this well!).


Maslow's Hierarchy of needs

Maslow’s Hierarchy of needs

All these needs are shared with our ancestors, even though the ways we satisfy them today are much different.
For this article, we want to focus for a moment on the esteem needs and how we deal with them.

Travelling back in time, we realize that the way we perceive status and accomplishment has changed dramatically. Back in the early 20th century,  recognition of prestige and success was relatable with something that today is considered as basic income level goods: simply owning a car or having access to products and appliances like a toaster, a vacuum cleaner or a radio were status symbols upon release.

Thanks to a mass economy of scale, globalization and technological advancements prestige is less correlated with these things and access to common goods and easy mobility is somewhat granted for a big percentage of the world population. Following our previous example, having a toaster in the 50s was somewhat a luxury whereas today it is just a machine taking up space in a kitchen. This means that what was considered a luxury in the past, is now considered common, which forces people to search for something original, unique and that makes them feel special in comparison to their peers.

As a result, people are going a long way to present themselves as accomplished and successful. Evidence has shown time and time again that luxury purchases are overwhelmingly emotional and driven by perceptions regarding self-identity and self-comparison. Since luxury goods have the ability of changing the perspective of who we are, they deliver emotional benefits regarding self-esteem, power and overall satisfaction regarding the consumer and his identity.

A paper of 2015 about preference of luxury goods concluded that luxury products are associated with success and considered a way to satisfy needs of social integration. In the study, most participants stated that luxury items helped them to highlight their personality and demonstrate their self-value, improving their confidence and self assurance, meaning that, through the purchase of expensive items or services, people get a feeling of accomplishment that enhances their idea of self-worth.

This is relatable to the concept of “conspicuous consumption” that was first introduced by the economist Thorstein Veblen. In essence, so-called luxury products serve a purpose beyond their utilitarian value, by providing a more visible one: the status value of the product. They provide the chance to publicly display individual economic power.

More recent studies further confirmed this vision, as Rayo and Becker (2006) suggested, the purchase of certain items was mainly motivated by a desire to advance in the social ranking and was viewed as an investment in self-image that could be projected to surrounding outsiders. Also, Manolis and Roberts (2008) defended that conspicuous consumption is a result of a motivational process where the individual wishes to improve social status by displaying consumption of products that symbolize a certain social position.

As a result, it is important to talk about “Veblen goods”, a very particular type of goods that contradict one of the most important laws of economics, the law of demand. As opposed to the “typical” goods, these are subject to an upward sloping demand curve, that is, as the price rises, so does the demand. This phenomena seems to question the rationality of economic agents, since ultimately individuals ask for the best price. But as we see, real life is different.

Just Imagine that you are online shopping and an advertisement pops-up: “Gucci bag at 19.99$, limited offer!”, what’s your first thought? It’s fake, right? At least, that is what most people think, and who can blame them? Gucci and other designer brands are associated with luxury, quality and exclusiveness. All of these attributes seem to lessen as the price goes down. Other examples are hyped sneakers, produced in limited quantities, as demand rises, so does the price. However, demand does not stop increasing since desirability is linked to exclusivity, to scarcity.

In behavioral economics and marketing, this lesson is well known and the markets for Veblen goods are increasing horizontally and vertically, with more and more exclusive and vintage products gaining traction in a stock market manner. These kinds of effects are part of our decision-making process as we don’t know the absolute value of any product or service, because, objectively, the value of anything is nothing more than a human construct. Brands are the most exemplary case for a psychological construct holding value.
If you’re offered (for free) a no brand version of your favorite piece of clothing and one from your favorite designer, you would probably go for the latter, even if the two items were exactly identical.

What if I have to decide on something I’ve never seen? To evaluate such a decision, our brains go for the relative price, comparing it to the most similar choice. What if we have no reference? Well, that’s difficult…for your brain too.

This human brain feature is called reference dependence. We rely on a reference point to make a judgement. This is usually well known by marketing departments and is a crucial way to find untapped business opportunities. Suppose you, as a company, are the product architect of a brand new product: a fine piece of jewellery with a rare material that no one has ever heard about. You will have to decide a price point for launch, which will influence future perceptions of the jewel. That is, you have to decide on the positioning of your product in the market. But how to proceed when your product doesn’t have anything directly comparable? Where you’re going to put your product next on the shelves, will also correspond to where it is positioned next in the consumer’s mind. New car price tagged the same as a Ferrari will not be regarded as a Prius!

After all, price is associated with quality and this abstraction can be more elaborated (that is the job of brand managers). With luxury goods, elasticity of demand is different than with consumer products, and price plays a vital role in consumer decision making. Price is a handy heuristic for quality.

The “You get what you pay for” goes far beyond the physical characteristics and attributes of a product, and most of the time those attributes don’t even matter. Blind tasting experiments with expensive wines showed that the majority of consumers can’t differentiate wines over a certain price threshold and even the most renewed sommeliers have troubles if blindfolded of the label.

So is it all in our minds? It was proven in a study made by Stanford and Caltech scholars regarding wine tasting that when looking at the MRI scans of the participants’ brains, not only did people rate more highly the most expensive wines, as they also enjoyed the experience of drinking them more.

Another take on the matter from Michael Norton, a professor at Harvard: “There’s an extra boost when you go up in the quality of experiences. So, it’s possible that a $10,000 bottle of whiskey would be more than twice as pleasurable than a $5,000 bottle of whiskey because it’s such a peak experience way out in the extreme.”

As an endnote, luxury serves a purpose beyond the experience itself and it is quality that goes on the sociological side. When people are satisfying their egos and amplifying their self-value through expensive items and services, they are also sending a message to everyone around them. This can only be achieved by publicizing that lifestyle and receiving public recognition and praise.

A very famous example of using luxury to reinforce social status came from Louis XVI along his bride Marie Antoniette. Royalty historically used luxury and wealth as a power statement.

In essence, there is a general acceptance in our society that possessing some items qualify an individual as successful and that gives them access to exclusive social circles that are recognized as powerful, wealthy and prestigious.

Through this article, it becomes understandable that Veblen goods and luxurious experiences serve a very important purpose for human beings as they satisfy a need that is sometimes unclear due to its intangible attribute. Mainly, the need to be accepted and recognized by others which is present in all of us. Ultimately, luxury is rational in the eye of the beholder: is human made, and human needed. Definition of luxury transcends time, but it’s materialization is very much unfixed, ever changing, and far from absolute.


Scarcity makes luxury. Not diamonds.


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US Elections 2020 and the Stock Market

General effect of elections on the Stock Market

Political stability is known to be one of the most relevant requirements for one to invest in a given market. Given this fact, it is no wonder that the United States have been the number one place to invest in over a century. One may say its capitalist policies have been the primary cause to that result but it is also important to notice that, unlike many of its European and Asian peers, this country has been under an ongoing democracy since 1776, which ultimately led the country to be seen as one of the most safest and transparent places to do business in.

Since we are talking about one of the main drivers of the current world economy, any political deviation tends to trigger either positive or negative worldwide economic forecasts, thus, influencing financial markets as whole.

Going into the most recent elections between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and despite the polls pointing from day one to the Democratic nominee, expectations about bullish or bearish views on the market (e.g. Energy Sector) were highly reliant on this election. However, it is important to bear in mind one very important aspect: both the Democratic or Republican parties believe that, under their own policies, the overall economy will grow at a faster and sustainable pace than under the other. Therefore, usually there are no major setbacks in stock markets since a large share of the US population must trust on the chosen economic strategy.

 


But for how long can this volatility affect the market?

Let’s use for example the two most disputed elections of the new millennial:

Al Gore vs George W. Bush 2000 election

In the midst of a Dotcom Bubble and a slowing US economy, the Al Gore vs George W. Bush clash took place, leading to one of the most disputed elections the country had ever seen, with a losing candidate having more popular votes for the first time since 1888 (Gore had approximately more 500.000 votes than Bush). After a very close race between both candidates, Florida’s 25 electoral votes were called “too close to call” after George W. Bush had won the state by a mere 900 votes out of a 6 million ballots cast. Such a close margin led Gore to demand a recount by hand in vary crucial counties, thus, postponing any official announcement for 36 days, and taking Wall Street into some red territory.

Overall, the S&P 500 had tumbled 7.8% during the recounting of votes and the final decision by Florida’s Supreme Court to overrule that same recounting.

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Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump 2016

During the final hours of the shocking 2016 elections, investors once again feared that no one would come out victorious as Florida’s counting was already looking similar to the one seen 16 years before. As so, Dow Futures plunged as much as 5% in the after-market, as a close call could once again lead to a lingering recount. Nevertheless, Hillary Clinton conceded the victory shortly after the official results came out, bringing relative calm to the stock market and even giving it some momentum.


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What were the markets betting on?

For months, the world had its eyes on the U.S. Elections and last week’s slow and excruciating wait for its outcome left millions of people worldwide constantly refreshing electoral maps and predicting its result. As millions of individuals around the globe, the stock market also established its prediction, based on one specific indicator: the S&P 500’s performance.

Historically, since World War II, 88% of the times the most relevant equity index in America fell in the three months prior to the election, the incumbent party lost. On the other hand, when the S&P 500 showcased some growth, the incumbent candidate for the presidency has won. This year was no exception. Until little time prior to the elections, the index was predicting a Republican win, yet, on the last Friday of October, markets were shaken and the S&P 500 drop 1.2%, registering a 0,04% plunge between the last days of July and October that, despite the very slight margin, meant a favorable result for Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate.

Despite the general idea that a Trump presidency would ultimately benefit Wall Street due to lower taxes and loose regulations, investors, businesses and the overall corporate America showed no worries of a possible blue wave, even considering Biden’s explicit support of a higher corporate tax rate, stronger unions and an expansion of government-run health insurance.Indeed, according to Harvard Business School professor Deepak Malhotra, “There is a growing sense that for business to do well, [and] for the economy to do well and to grow, you need a government that’s functional” matching JPMorgan statement that, despite the “consensus view” that a “Democrat victory in November will be negative for equities”, the multinational investment bank sees this “outcome as neutral to slightly positive”. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs stated that a Democratic win would increase the possibility of a fiscal stimulus package amounting to $2 trillion by the time of Joe Biden’s inauguration and his plans to increase spending on infrastructure, health care and education would ultimately “match the likely longer-term tax increases on corporations and upper-income earnings”. Supporting such predictions, Moody’s Analytics investigation outcome showed that Biden’s economic policies would create more 7.4 million jobs that Trump’s would, leading the economy to return to full employment by the second semester of 2022.

One should also not forget the fact that Joe Biden, given the current predictions, will rule the US under a Democratic Congress and a Republican Senate accentuating the need for compromise in all future policies. Rumors have it that Mitch McConnel and Biden have a healthy and professional relationship of mutual respect and they have worked well in the past, but only time will tell if the Senate will constitute an obstacle to the future POTUS or a means of achieving bipartisan consensus regarding the future of the United States of America.


The Evolution of the S&P 500 in the post-election: Markets seem to like Joe Biden so far

The Evolution of the S&P 500 in the post-election: Markets seem to like Joe Biden so far


Ultimately, investors dream about stability and smooth transitions of power. The latest remarks made by President Donald Trump before and after the elections, where he refused to concede to Biden and promised to legally contest the voting outcome, worried financial markets. Uncertainty surrounding the most powerful office in the US means trouble for investors and, due to this fact, we dare to say that they are looking forward to a Biden presidency and a peaceful ending to the Trump era. At the moment this article is being written, the outcome of the election does not seem final since top Republican officials are backing Trump’s unfounded accusations of election fraud pushing the process to the courts of law. If there is not a clear victor soon or if Donald Trump continues to refuse the will of the American people, markets will get edgy and volatility will be the law, in the short run.

Joe Biden, the 46th President of the United States

Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. won the 2020 US Elections, becoming the President-elect, with his inauguration as the 46th President of the United States of America being planned for January 20th, 2021.

After a turbulent election week, delayed by prolonged counting, due to an increased number of mail-in ballots and early votes, as well as allegations of voter fraud. The fog eventually cleared, and Joe Biden has come out victorious, with decisive upsets in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Some results have been highly disputed, and the Trump campaign has already called for a recount in Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona. Despite all this, everything points towards Biden beating Trump, 306 to 232 Electoral College votes.

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Senate and House of Representatives

Joe Biden is experienced for the office, having already served two terms as US’ Vice-President under the Obama administration, as well as six terms as Senator of Delaware.  His presidential campaign was based on being an experienced, traditional American politician, with an old-fashioned appeal and charismatic honesty.

With Biden at the helm, it feels like Washington’s future will be predictable and optimistic, unlike the last four years of Donald Trump’s erratic presidency.

The first two years of Biden’s mandate, however, will highly depend on the outcome of Georgia’s Senate runoff race. If Democrats can secure both seats, the Senate will be split 50-50 between Republicans and Democrats, with Kamala Harris, the Vice-President, serving as tiebreaker. As the House of Representatives is already held by Democrats, it would be considerably easier for Biden to pass some of his more ambitious policies, that stem from a more progressive wing of the party if both chambers were held by Democrats. Biden managed to gather the support of these progressive members of the Democratic Party, following his nomination for the Presidency. The impact of Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez’s and Bernie Sanders’s policies, if passed, could bring a substantial shift not only to American politics, but also to its socio-economic structure.

On the other hand, if Democrats are unable to secure both Senate seats, Biden must wait until 2022 to try to obtain a Senate majority, when 34 Senate seats will be up for election. Until then, Biden would have to strive for Bipartisan measures, that would be less ambitious than his proposed measures, especially regarding a new tax plan and healthcare bill.


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What can we expect of Biden’s Presidency?

Biden has already stated that on his first day in office, he will rejoin both the Paris Climate Deal and the World Health Organization, following Trump’s unexpected withdrawal from both these agreements, in 2017 and April of this year, respectively.

It has been made clear by the elected President, that he will tackle this pandemic with a science-based approach, appointing a task force of scientists led by Dr. Anthony Fauci. The Biden administration will also have to face the current crisis that was brought forth by the Covid-19 pandemic. This will be one of the major hurdles to surpass, as restructuring the economy will be vital to ensure that the American Economy overcomes this crisis. The plan is to primarily help low-income families, as they were the most affected by the current crisis, by encouraging the creation of small businesses and their expansion to economically disadvantaged areas. These areas are predominantly inhabited by minorities, and these measures would allow for greater racial equity throughout all social classes and ethnicities.

In the long-run, Biden plans to take concise action towards fighting Climate Change, seeking to invest $2 trillion to boost clean energy and rebuild deteriorating infrastructure. According to Biden, the US is currently facing “A Child Care Emergency”. To tackle it, he plans to invest $775 billion to lower the cost of and expand the access to healthcare for Americans. To raise funding to apply these measures, the Biden administration plans a tax increase on people earning over $400.000 a year, as well as multi-million dollar companies, who benefited from tax cuts under the Trump Administration. However, as mentioned before, these highly ambitious, but ground-breaking measures, are extremely difficult to be approved in a Republican-controlled Senate.


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Biden’s plan on Foreign Affairs

Biden has clearly stated that he intends to revitalize the Iran Nuclear Deal, following Donald Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from it, correcting the subsequent unforgiving economic sanctions that plummeted the Irani economy into a deep recession with soaring inflation and shortages of basic goods.

The election of Biden for President was not the desired outcome for Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as Biden announced he would reassess the relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia. He further declared he will demand accountability over the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist murdered inside the Saudi consulate, in Istanbul. The military support provided to Saudi Arabia by the US government in the Yemeni Civil War has also been questioned due to the increased death toll of civilians by Saudi Air and Drone strikes. This contrasts Mohammed bin Salman’s relationship with Donald Trump, who in 2019 referred his Saudi counterpart as “a good friend of mine”, after deciding not to confront the Saudi leader following the murder of Khashoggi.

During his tenure as Vice-President, Joe Biden was highly critical of Putin especially following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. He maintained this rhetoric after Alexei Navalny, a Russian opposition leader, was poisoned. However, Biden commented encouragingly the extension of START, the latest nuclear arms reduction pact between Russia and the US, that is set to expire in February.

Regarding China, Biden plans to take a more measured and multilateral approach to “pressure, punish and isolate China”, than the Trump administration’s barrage of sanctions on Beijing. 

“This is the time to heal America”

In his victory speech, the President-Elect displayed empathy and tried to reach out to those who did not vote for him. Essentially, Joe Biden attempted to convey a positive message that sought to reunite the American people, following a tumultuous election.

“To make progress, we have to stop treating our opponents as our enemies. They are not our enemies. They are Americans. They are Americans.”

— Joe Biden in his victory speech

For now, one must wait until the Electoral College meets to officially declare Joe Biden the President-elect, as Donald Trump has not yet conceded, and is still trying to fight a legal battle to annul what he deemed to be “illegal votes”. Only time will tell if Biden will be able to unify and heal a country deeply split by polarizing issues, that range from police brutality and institutional racism, to gun control and immigration. Without this unity, it will be even more demanding to ensure the US can come out of the current crisis stronger, as they did many times before, as a country.


Sources: Aljazeera, CNBC, EuroNews, Financial Times, Futurism, Reuters, The New York Times.


Christian Weber - Christian Weber João Oliveira - João Oliveira

João Sande e Castro - João Sande e Castro

Is there hidden inflation in a sea of deflation?

Economists around the world are rightfully concerned about inflation trends. Headline inflation does not tell the full story, though.

Extraordinary times, unconventional measures, doubtful results

With the recent economic woes caused by the pandemic, governments and central banks have been called for an unprecedented role of support to the economy, so as to limit the damage it has ravaged. Central banks, in particular, have come up with enormous economic stimulus packages, only comparable to the ones used following the Great Recession of 2008. One of the objectives of these institutions is price stability, normally measured with inflation – a quantitative measure of the rate at which the average price level of a basket of selected goods and services, primarily of interest to consumers, in an economy increases over some period of time –, which has seen great disruption.

At the moment, however, in the Euro Area, countries are experiencing deflation, the opposite of inflation, that is, a decrease in the price level. This is often seen as a bad indicator for the economy, as deflation could cause consumers and firms to delay consumption and investment decisions, so as to buy the same goods and services at a cheaper price in the future, which can lead to increased unemployment and, therefore, to an even greater reduction of consumption, pushing production and unemployment down even further. Thus, it is of no surprise that it is also seen as a sign that wages are not increasing or even worse, decreasing. Because if salaries are stagnant or diminishing this will negatively affect the consumers demand for goods, which could sometimes help to explain part of said deflation. This is the reason why central banks target an inflation rate around 2-3%, neither too high nor too low.

In order to combat this low inflation and bring liquidity to financial markets, so as to allow firms to more easily find credit to finance their day-to-day operations and their short-term cash flow strains, the European Central Bank (ECB) has embarked on a massive stimulus program.

Nonetheless, the purpose of this article is to assess whether or not the reported headline deflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), seen in the indicators is not perhaps “hiding” inflation of substantially important goods for consumers and, therefore, turning  the well-intended actions of the ECB and other Central Banks to bring inflation up in order to help households, ending up hurting them.


Hidden inflation?

One of such “hidden” inflation phenomena can be seen primarily in the price evolution of food products, as seen in the graphs below.

Source: Trading Economics

Source: Trading Economics

Source: Trading Economics

Source: Trading Economics

 As it can be observed, food products inflation in the US has not always been above CPI inflation throughout the past year, but there was a large spike of the former, right when COVID-19 started spreading around the world and lockdowns began being enforced, which ground to a halt almost all economic activity.

Whilst CPI inflation decelerated, food inflation experienced the opposite. Focusing on the Euro Area in particular, even though there were some differences (in the Netherlands and Germany, the CPI has actually grown since March), in most countries, the correlation between CPI and food inflation was considerably negative, reinforcing the notion that the two evolved oppositely. Consequently, it would seem plausible that central banks could be emphasizing too much the low rates of inflation as measured by the CPI, but ignoring the increase in prices for food products, which are considered essential goods and represent a significant amount of an average household’s disposable income. So, central banks could be hurting households whilst trying to help them. And there is a valid argument to be made here, as in times of crises people tend to buy more food products as a proportion of their income and low-income families have a greater percentage of their income being spent on these products.


Breaking down inflation

Nevertheless, before making any hastily conclusions, we should first acknowledge that there are sectoral differences in inflation, meaning that different sectors in the economy tend to experience different inflation levels. For example, in terms of inflation, goods can be divided into non-tradable goods and tradable ones. The former group includes goods that can only be consumed in the economy in which they are produced in or that are not able to be exported or imported and, thus, face less exposure to international markets and price fluctuations. The latter group encompasses goods that are free to be traded between countries and are, thus, more susceptible to international price fluctuations. In the case of non-tradable goods, their prices can be greatly influenced by increases in productivity in the tradable sector, because such improvements will lead to higher wages. Also, as the intrinsically less globalized sector is more dependent on labour, it will result in higher prices of the produced goods.

However, one only ought to go to the nearest supermarket and check the origins of products on the stalls to realize the food sector is most likely a tradable goods sector, as much of the food we consume is imported from elsewhere, meaning it is exposed to international shocks, such as the one we are currently experiencing. But it is a special subsector, in the sense that, in developed countries, it enjoys a certain degree of isolation from the outside world, due to the higher health and safety requirements of these countries. Moreover, it is traditionally a sector that experiences higher inflation, because of the above-mentioned characteristic, but also due to an increase in living conditions in emerging countries, which are causing increases in demand, not fully matched by increases in the supply side. Besides this, the costs of storing, transporting and distributing have also risen and, in some cases, climate change has played a role in affecting the supply side (example: recurring droughts in California, that increase the costs of irrigation and loss of crops for farmers, largely as a result of the increased activity of the El Niño effect).


The effect of the pandemic on food prices

All this goes to show that inflation is traditionally higher in food products, but the levels that have been observed this year have been particularly high. This is majorly the result of the stress the pandemic has put on supply chains. As countries went into lockdowns, very little production was happening and trade between countries sharply decreased as well. As a matter of fact, in Europe, for instance, many nations closed their borders during March and April, which increased the costs and time of transporting goods between countries, resulting in an over-supply of some goods in some countries, which were destined to foreign markets, and in a shortage of other goods. Adding to this strain on supply chains, there is also the observed behaviour of consumers increasing sharply their spending on food products during crises, as they fear supply chains may be at risk or that prices might increase rapidly. However, this is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy, because, by increasing demand so dramatically in such a short period of time, consumers can make a “secure” supply chain of food, suddenly becoming overwhelmed due to the supply side not being able to meet such levels as rapidly.

Graph 3 – International trade has been suffering a severe hit in 2020     Source: World Trade Organization

Graph 3 – International trade has been suffering a severe hit in 2020 

Source: World Trade Organization

Besides the stress on the supply chain, farmers also have to deal with another problem resulting from the pandemic – the low availability of workers for harvesting crops –, either due to travel restrictions, little possibility of meeting the safety requirements or by people simply not feeling comfortable enough to work. This last occurrence has been especially problematic in the American and German meat industries, as slaughterhouses have had major out-breaks of COVID-19, which have caused prolonged and recurring shutdowns, contributing to even greater prices of meat comparing to other food categories, something notably concerning, as it is a very important part of average consumer diet.


A final verdict

In conclusion, is there “hidden” inflation? Yes, there is, mainly in the products which are of most importance for consumers, which are also having to deal with higher unemployment and decreases in income. So, it is reasonable to ask if central banks are not perhaps too focused on overall inflation levels to be able to notice an already high inflation level that greatly affects families, which might be causing an inadequacy of stimulus programs to revamp inflation, in terms of improving people’s situation. Even so, as we have seen, it is mainly a matter of problems of the supply side in meeting demand, something that should be smoothed out in the coming months as producers tackle the problems of the new working environments and consumers realize that supply chains are not as in danger as previously feared.

Sources: Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales, Economics Help, European Central Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Investopedia, Norges Bank, Taylor & Francis Online, The New York Times, Trading Economics, tutor2u, World Trade Organization.

The Barefoot College

“What’s the best way of communicating in the world today?
Television? No.
Telegraph? No.
Telephone? No.
Tell a woman.”

— Bunker Roy

By definition, development implies an act of change.

However, the current pandemic endangered the traditional flows of humanitarian aid between the developed and developing countries, surfacing an ever existing problem. The usual view of helping by exchanging first necessity goods was also corrupted by the lockdown and the disruption of supply chains. Companies are cutting costs and there aren’t as many supplies to give away as before, and in the unfortunate event of a ONG having to close down, even for a couple of months, the targeted community will go back to needing clothes, food and medicine shortly afterwards as they remain without some self-sustainable, independent way to get those basic products. Consequently, more and more search comes for lasting, self-growing, universally obtainable means, like education, in the hopes of creating a solid ground that can’t be as easily affected by unpredictable world-level crisis such as the present one.

The creation of a physical, usable bridge between the developing and developed worlds was a dream of Sanjit “Bunker” Roy, a young freshly graduate student that decided to make a real lasting change. As one of India’s privileged, Sanjit had a world of opportunities, he could go anywhere and do anything. Instead, he felt that what he really wanted to do was make a change and so he went to one of India’s poorest regions and began transforming it as a single man in a strange place.

One of Sanjit’s most valuable practices was to start small and local. To feed this idea of an impactful project he could not just make huge changes in the local villages of rural India from his perspective of what would benefit the community. As a literate man, he could think for himself, alone, making sole use of his knowledge, but he didn’t. He understood that the key to a measurable transformation was actually speaking with local farmers, children and women, people who could actually explain their needs and dreams.


“Listen to the people on the ground. They have all the solutions in the world.”

— Bunker Roy

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Surprisingly, he began realizing that, although without education, these people knew whatever they needed to know to sustain an impressive standard of living given the poor resources available. They possessed incredible tools, knowledge and ideas that would never be reached by the institutional, formally educated brain. In fact, “Bunker” Roy talks about an important woman that couldn’t read but worked as a dentist and had under her care more than 7.000 children. Also, a gentleman that couldn’t read, but challenged the vision of educated architects who said it was impossible to build something sustainable out of the dry “unusable” land, and gave instructions on how to build and grow life in that unfavourable environment. These people and their mentality looked past modern age obstacles and defied contemporary reasoning.


“[The Barefoot College is] the only college where the teacher is the learner and the learner is the teacher.”

— Bunker Roy

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With this, Sanjit “Bunker” Roy ended up creating The Barefoot College, a school Built by the poor, for the poor, where they teach groups of women from different, poor villages all around the country how to become solar engineers, innovators and educators. Women who afterwards return to their homes and transform their communities by harvesting solar energy for electricity and becoming teachers to those around them. In these women, Sanjit found a source of real power and lasting, self-sustainable change, so much so that he found best to provide them with all the necessary capacities to transform their realities.


“Our job is to show how it is possible to take an illiterate woman and make her into an engineer in six months and show that she can solar-electrify a village.”

— Bunker Roy

Sanjit knew that giving and installing solar panels himself would have an overwhelming impact in his community, but he chose to go further and gave more than 1,000,000 people in over 96 countries access to clean energy for heating and cooking and clean water to drink.


“We went to Ladakh … and we asked this woman, ‘What was the benefit you had from solar electricity?’ And she thought for a minute and said, ‘It’s the first time I can see my husband’s face in winter.”

— Bunker Roy

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The increased quality of life given to all these different villages and communities exceeds the power of one man and it is only possible because there is a system and a mentality already in people’s souls that goes beyond traditional education and degrees. It comes from the day to day living that a “privileged outsider” would never be able to comprehend. So, it is to people as Sanjit Roy that we have to thank every day. Sometimes it is easier to overlook this idea that we need to go out of our comfort zone to find the strategies and change lives but is necessary to confront ourselves and evaluate if whether we are making use of our knowledge to find impossible solutions.

The human race has the power and knowledge to find impossible solutions

 

If you have time, please visit https://www.barefootcollege.org/about/ and watch https://www.ted.com/talks/bunker_roy_learning_from_a_barefoot_movement?language=zh-TW.


Clara Malta - Clara Malta

Erdoganism: The Republican Sultan

TURKEY’S PAST represents prosperity and pride for the Turkish people. The vast Ottoman Empire which spread across the European, Asian and African continents fell just before the end of World War I. Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, former Turkish president, led Turkish people against invaders during WWI and, in 1923, implemented a secularist and independent republic. Turkey joined NATO in 1952 under the Democratic Party, which many saw as the “saviour of Islam”. Due to its closeness to religion, the party was overthrown in 1960 following a coup by the armed forces. In recent decades, Turkey has long been entangled in internal divisions between leftists and rightists, the latter often associated with nationalist islamists.


Political ascendance

Already from a young age, Erdogan was known for his oratory skills defending the Islamist cause. During his studies at Marmara University’s Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, from where he graduated in 1981, Erdogan embodied the cause of nationalist students’ movements. He was part of the islamist Welfare Party, which was later banned following accusations of religious meddling in government affairs. His Justice and Development Party (AKP), which he co-founded in 2001 and persists to this day, was also imposed financial penalties for anti-secularist behaviour in 2008.

Erdogan was first elected for a political office in 1994, as mayor of Istanbul. He was elected then prime-minister in 2003 and later, in 2014, rather than being chosen by the parliament, he was elected president of Turkey by universal suffrage, for the first time in the country’s history.

Internal Policies

In 1998, Erdogan was convicted for inciting religious hatred after reciting a poem that compared mosques to barracks, minarets to bayonets, and the faithful to an army. In fact, he progressively started promoting authoritarian and islamist initiatives. He prohibited alcoholic beverages in the city’s cafes as mayor of Istanbul and later lifted the headscarves ban in public institutional places. He also unsuccessfully attempted to criminalize adultery.

Erdogan as mayor of Istanbul. Source: Wall Street Journal

Erdogan as mayor of Istanbul. Source: Wall Street Journal

Erdogan frequently expressed pronatalist views, against reproductive rights, birth control, and abortion. The government has thus promoted financial incentives to encourage family growth, such as a severance payment to newly married women who leave their job within a year after their wedding.

Furthermore, Erdogan’s control of religion in society largely passes through his policies on education. Under the AKP, the Directorate of Religious Affairs (Diyanet) plays a central role, and the Imam Hatip Okulları (IHLs), which used to be religious courses, are now equivalent to secondary schools. In 2011, the AKP decreased university entry barriers to IHL students. In 2018, those constituted 12% of the total secondary school population, an increase of about 3.4 percentage points since 1997.

In 2013, a large-scale US$100 billion corruption scandal, involving two of Erdogan`s sons, culminated in the arrests of Erdogan’s closest allies, with some political figures being dismissed from office.

In that same year, the Gezi Park protests erupted in Istanbul and later spread across the country. This represented an anti-government uprise against growing authoritarian and islamist initiatives. In fact, a law penalizing insults towards the head of state, in practice since 1926, had rarely been used before Erdogan. Until 2016, more than 1500 people have allegedly been investigated, kept in custody or imprisoned under this law. Critics accuse the party of significant control of the media and public opinion, oppression of political opponents, and an overall violation of freedom of speech.

In 2016, the military orchestrated an unsuccessful coup to strip the president off his title. In response, Erdogan ordered mass arrests and show trials. In 2017, he won a referendum, backed by 51% of voters, which strengthened his constitutional competence. This granted him the power to directly appoint top public officials, including ministers and vice-presidents, to intervene in the legal system, and possibly remain in office until 2029, in addition to abolishing Turkey’s parliamentary system.


Economy

As mayor of Istanbul, Erdogan strived to overcome the city’s main problems: setting up new recycling facilities, developing natural gas projects to clean the air, and introducing hundreds of kilometers of new pipeline to ensure water supply. Macroeconomic reforms attracted more foreign investors, which allowed for more infrastructure projects such as the construction of bridges, passageways, and freeways. Concerning Erdogan’s early years as prime-minister, Zafer Caglayan, the former Economic Affairs Minister, described them as the «Turkish Miracle». In fact, for most of the 2000s, Turkey was Europe’s fastest growing economy, reaching an annual growth rate of 7%. Between 2002 and 2012, the country’s Real GDP increased 64%, while GDP per capita increased 43%. Additionally, as prime-minister, Erdogan implemented reforms and increased investment in infrastructure such as roads, airports, and a high-speed train network.

However, since 2013, the «Turkish Miracle» has been fading as Turkey has been witnessing the abandonment of soft power. In 2014, growth fell to 2.9% and unemployment rose above 10%.

Turkey’s intervention in several international conflicts, such as the Israeli-Palestinian and the Turkish-Kurdish, also contributed to its economy flagging. Between 2016 and 2017, several rating agencies downgraded Turkey’s sovereign credit ratings, expressing their concern about rule of law and the pace of economic reforms. With investors’ confidence declining since 2016, US sanctions imposed against Turkey in 2018, and staggering inflation, the economy reached a recession at the end of the year, urging the government to implement measures to alleviate pressure on the population. The lira dropped by 40% against the dollar, while industrial production slowed and housing sales dropped. Since then, the party has been increasingly losing control over the economy, with significant consequences during the 2019 local elections, losing both the capital Ankara and Istanbul.

III. Foreign Policy

Regarding foreign policy, Erdogan has focused on defending the Islamist cause worldwide, intervening in several international conflicts, which he perceives as beneficial for national security. He sees himself not only as the savior of Muslims but also as of «all the aggrieved people in our region, all the oppressed in the world», as he stated in his victory speech in 2018.

The conflict with the Kurds has led Turkey to occupy north-eastern Syria. Firstly, Erdogan’s aim was to stabilize the regions in the country controlled by rebels who wanted to end Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a strategy to stop floods of refugees to cross the border. But since Kurdish forces have controlled Syria’s northern region, taking advantage of the withdrawal of US troops, Erdogan pushed them out.

Simultaneously, a war of words between Greece and Turkey has been escalating over Mediterranean waters. Erdogan signed a deal with Libya’s unbacked government, allegedly granting Turkey´s access to Greek waters and gas reserves. In August this year, Turkey sent a ship to exploit hydrocarbon offshore, deepening the tensions. The EU, although having abandoned negotiations with Turkey in 2016, accusing it of basic human rights violations, has appealed for dialogue. To this day tensions between Turkey and the block still persist, notably regarding the refugee crisis.

Concerning the east, Turkey has seen its ties with China strengthen, signing bilateral agreements on health and nuclear energy, while ignoring the Muslim Uighurs’ modern concentration camps. On top of that, Erdogan has shown support for repressive regimes, such as Nicolas Maduro’s.

Source: Daily Sabah

Source: Daily Sabah


Conclusion

Since his rise to power, Erdogan’s grip of Turkey has been increasingly marked by authoritarian policies. Initially praised for turning around the country’s economy, Erdogan’s disregard of the rule of law and human rights have put him under fire in the international scene.

But his focus on social values is two-sided: they both reflect his personal views as well as the source of where he harnesses support. In July of this year, the Turkish President ruled that the 1,500-year-old Byzantine Hagia Sophia, a former cathedral turned mosque which until recently served as a museum established by Ataturk, would once again become a mosque. The move, which sparked international outcry, served as a strategy for Erdogan to ensure his popularity, as he avidly relies on his conservative supporters. In fact, the government has been criticized for mishandling the Coronavirus pandemic as the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, Turkey’s two largest cities, accused it of covering up the real numbers. This precarious and uncertain situation, alongside a frail economy, raises questions on the future of Erdogan’s controversial leadership.

Regulating Big Tech

To which degree should technology influence our human experience? Some believe this question to be only ethical and philosophical, yet, nowadays, this discussion is shifting from existential fields and stepping into economical ground.

Economic theory tells us monopolies hurt consumers, as these end up paying higher prices otherwise would under a competitive environment. Governments often intervene when consumers are harmed or when unfair competition takes place. This was the case when in 1909, the US Government sued Standard Oil under the Sherman Act, leading to its breakup into 34 independent companies. Undoubtedly, a resembling situation is on an eminent stand regarding Big Tech enterprises and their evident market abuse, leading to economic distortions.

Big Tech companies are seen as today’s monopolies, the winner takes all nature of the tech industry has given the Big Five – Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Alphabet – an incentive for abuse of power, as well as an edge over the competition by allowing to use their platform power to promote other services or eliminate potential rivals through acquisitions. Furthermore, the internet has made regulators’ job increasingly difficult because a new currency has emerged, data.

Source: Statista

Source: Statista

Consequently, combining the rise of the technology market with data becoming the most valuable asset on earth, the concern is becoming tangible and several institutions have expressed their worries. Now, the question is if and how regulatory entities should intervene. Different approaches have been taken by distinct institutions yet, three main possible responses have been on discussion: tighten up laws to allow enforcers to better enact them; enforce already existing antitrust rules; or creating new regulatory parameters in order to stop the rise of power of market players – a more extreme solution.


Indeed, a new regulation paradigm is in the works, one that focuses not only in the price paid by consumers, considering many of the services are provided free of charge, but  a more value-based understanding of the real exchange that takes place.

This brings us to another concern about the current self-regulating environment in the Tech industry, privacy. Although big steps have been taken in ensuring the protection of users’ data, improper use, leaks and unlawful data collection are still too common, leaving a sense of insecurity and distrust for tech companies.

These concerns have been left unanswered, in part, due to the enormous political influence the tech sector has, especially in the US. Tech giants spend millions of dollars lobbying US officials. A good example is the effort in maintaining the famous Section 230 of the Communications and Decency Act.

“no provider or user of an interactive computer service shall be treated as the publisher or speaker of any information provided by another information content provider”

— Section 230 of the Communications and Decency Act

The controversial law essentially takes responsibility of some illegal contents away from tech companies, being particularly relevant in the 2020 US Presidential Elections, due to scrutiny over hate speech protection, political biases, and misinformation. In addition to the social and political effects, the power of Big Tech has also made US markets less competitive.

EU has taken big steps in holding Big Tech accountable

Figure 1 - EU Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager

Figure 1 – EU Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager

EU is already taking action and discussions are taking place in regard to limiting the power of these Tech Giants. As a matter of fact, EU regulators are working in order to establish a “Hit list” composed of up to 20 large companies that would be subject to more restrictive and regulatory measures than those applied to smaller competitors, with the main purpose of restraining their market power. The criteria for inclusion on the list (as well as the precise number of companies to make the list) is still under discussion, but it is likely to revolve around market share of revenues and number of users.

Additional measures include the grant of free-access to competitors, namely the sharing of data with its rivals, as well as the power to force these companies to change business practices considered harmful to consumers or unfair to its competitors without requirement of a full investigation or any finding attesting that they have broken the law. Furthermore, these new rules intend to restrict the companies´ liberty to pre-define their own services by default on consumers´ gadgets (such as is the case of Google apps on smartphones), as well as setting a preference for their own services in browser search results.

Should these measures prove to be insufficient, Brussels also concedes that more extreme ones may be taken against these Tech Giants under special circumstances, such as the power to exclude them from the market altogether, forcing them to sell part of their units or even ultimately breaking them up.

These proposals are likely to integrate the new legal framework concerning digital services that is expected to be published in the forthcoming new Digital Services Act, consisting of an update of the e-Commerce Directive adopted in 2000, in order to accommodate for the on-going incremental technological changes that we have been subject to in the past 20 years.

Also, in a joint document sent to the European Commission, France and the Netherlands suggested EU Authority should have the power to control the market position of some large tech platforms.

“Our common ambition is to design a framework that will be efficient enough to address the economic footprint of such actors on the European economy and to be able to ‘break them open’”

— France and Netherlands in the joint document sent to the European Commission

Nonetheless, these are only small examples of a conversation that is far to be finished and whose end is not nearby.

Overall, while these measures denote a strong concern of the European countries regarding the constraining of the power of platforms that are perceived to be acting as “gatekeepers”, it is still yet to be seen whether these changes will be effective or sufficient to prevent them from exploiting their powers. Moreover, it is important to highlight that most of these companies that are being targeted are US Giants, making it so these measures will probably be badly received by many of them, causing additional friction between Europe and the US.

The US still lives in a self-regulating environment

Figure 2 - Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook Inc. testifying before US Congress

Figure 2 – Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Facebook Inc. testifying before US Congress

In recent years, the USA has become increasingly conscientious over the impact tech companies have on consumers and politics. The government has also started acting, with the Department of Justice soon releasing a landmark lawsuit against Google for illegally invading the privacy of its users, the biggest in the past twenty years. Also, a recent damming 449-page congressional report by the House Judiciary Committee accuses Big Tech of abusing their market power “by controlling access to markets, these giants can pick winners and losers throughout our economy. They not only wield tremendous power, but they also abuse it by charging exorbitant fees, imposing oppressive contract terms, and extracting valuable data from the people and businesses that rely on them”. The report suggests restructuring the business model of some companies and breaking them apart, similarly to what happened to Standard Oil, in what seems to be the biggest threat ever posed to corporate power.

Republicans disagree on some of the proposals, nevertheless it is commonly believed more resources to enforce the existing laws are needed. However, the GOP is more concerned over the alleged social media bias against conservative ideas, although there has been no evidence whatsoever.

Although there is consensus on the need for regulation, we are still uncertain on how it will come, and the November Election will be key to understanding which side will have its way.


Sources: Financial Times, European Commission, Federal Communications Commission, United States House of Representatives, New York Times, Reuters, CNBC, Statista


Tiago Rebelo - Tiago Rebelo Matilde Mota - Matilde Mota


João Caetano - João Caetano Inês Lindoso - Inês Lindoso

From great power (of Habit) comes great responsibility

The corporate world surely can be a challenging and high-pressured environment to work in. It is a place where people with very different backgrounds, education and beliefs have to collaborate and work together.

In the hopes of building and sustaining a successful project within competitive industries, organizations have to look deep inside their own dynamics with the goal of harmonizing everyone’s interests in the search for a common goal.

Human behaviour is considered one of the most difficult things to understand completely but one thing is certain, we are creatures of habit. Our brains are subject to numerous stimuli every day and forced to make millions of decisions, so as an evolutionary feature, we evolved to have programmed patterns, routine processes that allow us to save our much needed mental energy.

The American psychologist William James once compared habits to water, he said “water hollows out for itself a channel, which grows broader and deeper, and, after having ceased to flow, it resumes, when it flows again, the path traced by itself before.”, revealing this way, how we systematically repeat behaviours without even realizing it. These habits show up in our daily lives in the form of automatic routines: we don’t have to think about the route for work or university, and we end up drinking the usual morning coffee in the same shop without realising it.

the power of habit

However, it is possible to redirect the path this water takes and adjust behaviours by creating new habits.“The Power of Habit” explores this deeply. According to the author,  the best way to get rid of a bad habit is simple: create a new one. From a more scientific perspective, we form habits following a 3 step loop: Cue (the external or internal stimulus that makes you perform the habit), Routine (the act of practicing the habit)  and Reward (the satisfactory feeling from performing the routine) which can be anything. From a feeling of accomplishment by finishing a task to a dopamine release when you open social media and see dozens of messages and likes. By being able to identify the cue, that is, what triggers a bad habit, you can change your routine to a new one and adjust the reward accordingly.

However, one must understand that there is no secret formula to do it. It depends on multiple factors like will power (highly subjective), personal background and it’s even harder when dealing with the habits of possibly thousands of employees that, altogether create what is the company culture. Some habits appear harder to change than others and some people can go a lifetime without realizing or being able to change any of them.

Some explanation could be found when looking to groups of people that are designed to fight (bad) habits. It is not enough to get used in fighting habits or even change it for a new one. As shown in a study from the California’s Alcohol Research Group for the Alcoholics Anonymous, in most cases, respondents revealed that when a stressful event occurred, the habit tended to come back, as they found comfort in the reward associated (quoting William James, the habit path never entirely disappears). In this perspective, organizations might have to play a vital role.

As stated, habits depend a lot on will power and this is highly correlated to the environment surrounding each individual: social norms, peer pressure and other phenomena can either make the ground for beneficial or bad habits. Is about which group and which norms you’re exposed to that determines how your behavior will be beneficial or not. As for drinking (often a group activity), take the AA: they try to provide individuals with a feeling of inclusion, understanding, and offer a base of support to fight addiction (assigning a mentor, sharing with fellows struggling like them…). By finding a common ground and goals to move towards together, organizations might have the base to form a stronger group identity: a culture.

Some organizations fail to succeed in the corporate world for the lack of an identity, something that everyone in the company embraces and fights towards. But even though a unifying culture is vital for success, it is even more imperative that this culture is the right one for the organization.

Take what happened at the Rhode Island Hospital a couple years back. This hospital, one of America’s leading medical institutions, was known as a place with many internal tensions. The relationship between doctors and nurses was difficult and after years of strikes by the nursing staff, the situation remained similar by the lack of effort of the administrators.

Nurses came up with a damage limitation solution: they created a blackboard where they could all see the doctors they would work with on the operation room and they would write those names with different colours, so that each nurse knew what to expect when entering the room, if the name was written in red or black, they knew they shouldn’t even make a suggestion or they would be in trouble.

This way, nurses thought they would avoid unnecessary conflict. But how wrong they were… Without noticing, the nurses created a habit: if the name is written in black or red, I will not intervene and correct the doctor’s decision, no matter what.

The result? Malpractices, one after the other, that sometimes, led to deaths.

Whenever a surgeon (human after all) was about to make a mistake, due to past conflicts, nurses would simply follow their habits and not intervene; these habits were instilled through unwritten rules that have been interpreted as part of the culture.

Rhode Island Hospital, one of America's leading medical institutions.

Rhode Island Hospital, one of America’s leading medical institutions.

Sometime after, due to all the pressure from the media, the administration came to their senses and applied measures that eventually conceded nurses a voice and created new habits that changed the organization’s dynamics. However, it remains a perfect example of how an undirected bad culture within an organization, can lead to harmful outcomes (in this case, for the health of patients). Corollary: in moments of crisis and public exposure, organizations have a unique opportunity to make changes. When everyone involved is in some way or another negatively affected and there is a sense of collective struggle, the chance to set aside divergences and move towards a common goal, rises.

Let’s relate to the covid-19 pandemic. For a company to survive these uncertain times it is essential to maintain its culture. However, with most people having to work from home, the overall company dynamics had to be changed or completely reinvented. By looking at some top renown companies we can see the path that company cultures’ development is taking.

For instance, Google has allowed its employees to work remotely until the end of 2020. Besides, it also provided a work from home allowance of 1000$ for equipment costs. Such action made it possible for workers to create their own home office environment with less propensity of getting distracted and more sustainability.

Take instead the measures taken by Target. Target’s main priority was to ensure employee safety by extending sick leave for everyone and offering high-risk workers a thirty-day paid leave in case they were uneasy to come back to in person work. In addition, Target also offered financial aid to employees working in the stores (and implemented similar programs for ones who wished to contribute.)

On the influence of leaders, we have an example from a firm: Alcoa, an aluminium company. When their new CEO, Paul O´Neill took over in 1987, everyone was confused by his presentation speech. His main goal, he said, was to “make Alcoa the safest company in America”, he added, “I intend to go for zero injuries”. Every shareholder in the room was surprised, not only did he not talk about raising profits and cutting costs, he intended to transform one of the most risky workplaces into the safest in the country. One year after his speech, the firm hit an all time record of profits, and by 2000, when O´Neill left, the annual Net Income of Alcoa was 5 times larger. So, what happened?

The CEO was aware of the power of good practices, good examples, and more importantly, of the impact of a good culture. By defining a clear goal that everyone could work towards and support (relatable), Paul created a culture where everyone felt part of something bigger and got each worker excited to do their best for a company that defended their interests.

With this measure, everything improved: happy workers were more productive, less accidents meant less costs and more available workers, but, more importantly, in order to achieve the goal of zero injuries, everyone had to be well aware of what everyone had to do. In other words, the change of a habit triggered a chain reaction. It made workers not only be more careful and productive, but they also felt entitled to give suggestions to improve the company: they felt like they mattered more, and had a saying in the path the firm took.

This just goes to show that even though managing thousands of workers, pleasing shareholders and simply put, running an organization, can be difficult, it is possible, even with simple ideas, to create a good culture, unite everyone and run a successful business.

More recently, Dan Price (CEO of Gravity Payments) made the news cutting his own wage to reach a minimum salary of 70k$ for all its employees. Deemed as a madman by the media, actually had a more interesting effect: its company valuation went from ~4 b$ to ~11 b$ dollars in 4 years. More than 10% of the company have been able to buy their own home, in one of the US’s most expensive cities for renters. Before the figure was less than 1%. People even started having babies all of a sudden.

The examples presented painted very different pictures, however, both help prove the argument that an organization is much more than the individualities and much bigger than an idea.

Dan Price, CEO Gravity Payments

Dan Price, CEO Gravity Payments

Companies and institutions are made of every single person involved in the final product or service provided, and without a common ground, an identity or a culture to unite the interests of everyone, it is only by chance that success lasts.

The Fall of Social Democracy in Europe

Historical context

Social Democracy was born in the second half of the 19th century, inspired by labor, socialist and Marxist movements. Germany can be considered its country of origin, with the SPD (established in 1863) as the first social-democratic party. The labor and social-democratic movements were already important even before WWII, with the British Labour Party governance in the 1920s and the French and Spanish Popular Fronts in the 1930s. In post-war Europe, Social Democracy (along with Christian Democracy) was a large contributor to the modern welfare state, frequently switching power with more conservative governments, and maintaining influence in politics even when not governing.

In the 1980s, there was a conservative neoliberal turn and the center-left lost some appeal. Indeed, at the beginning of the 21st century, the Third Way arose, i.e, a shift in leftist parties around the world towards a more moderate, market-friendly economic policies, moving further away from the strong welfare states established after WWII. Nevertheless, social democratic parties managed to be in power until the 2008 crisis. However, since then, they have lost power in most countries and became the opposition (in some cases even losing the position as the biggest opposition party).


Countries where social democracy has failed

The rise of the Third Way was particularly stronger in Europe’s biggest nations. In Germany, this rightward shift of Social Democracy occurred with Gerhard Schröder, leader of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and Germany’s Chancellor between 1998 and 2005. Schröder introduced the Agenda 2010, a series of reforms aimed at cutting German’s welfare system and labor protections, to promote economic growth and reduce unemployment. This clear shift to liberal policies cost the SPD the 2005 election and the party has not led the German Government since.  It has been the junior party in a grand coalition led by Angela Merkel’s CDU since 2013.

The French Socialist Party has suffered an even greater decline. After narrowly being elected in 2012, Socialist president François Hollande failed to bring down unemployment and made several unpopular political moves. In 2017, facing dismal approval ratings, he became the first president in the Fifth Republic not to run for re-election. Among many others, the main reason for the decline in social democracy in France presents a familiar story: with globalization, as factories moved from France to third-world countries, the Socialist Party’s traditional voting base became unemployed, facing economic hardships and thus, started to move to political extremes and populist parties. Regarding the newer generation, it is divided between a more moderate wing, trying to appeal to the center, and a more radical one, seeking to recover the party’s former working-class base. Consequently, since 2017, the Socialists have not managed to attain more than 8% of the votes.

A different shift from social democracy occurred in Greece. In January 2015, Syriza, the radical left-wing party led by Alex Tsipras, characterized by a staunch opposition to austerity measures imposed by Troika, won the Greek legislative elections. Tsipras was elected just as the negotiations started for a new bailout. Unable to reach a compromise with Troika, he held a referendum on the opposed austerity measures, which were refused by 60% of Greeks. However, Tsipras was still unable to negotiate better terms and ended up agreeing to the bailout terms and austerity. The economy was going through a U-turn, taking a complete opposition of policy than the defended one in the beginning. Despite the recent economic improvement, Syriza finished second in the 2019 Greek elections and lost power.

A possible solution to the crisis of social democratic parties would be a shift to the left, unlike the moderate turn in Germany and France. This happened in the British Labour Party with the election of Jeremy Corbyn, who had major support of trade unions and the more left faction of the party. His more leftward stance included opposition to austerity and the renationalization of public utilities and railways. However, with Brexit as the main hot issue in the UK and Corbyn’s non-existent position on this matter, the Labour Party faced a historical defeat in elections.


Countries where Social Democracy is still in place

The most well-known case of Social Democracy’s success in Europe is Portugal. The country is led by a center-left minority government with the support of other left-wing parties. On its first mandate (2015-2019), PS (the Socialist Party) governed Portugal through a coalition with the other left-wing parties, commonly known as Geringonça, to form a “majority” in parliament. Geringonça proved to be a success, leading the country to a stable period of economic growth, which increased confidence in voters, who maintained the left voting tendency. This has also happened in the neighboring country, Spain where Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) has collided to govern with a more radical left party, Podemos. This comes as no surprise in the Iberian Peninsula, as it has a large percentage of working-class voters (traditionally centre-left voters), unlike other European countries.

Another European region where Social Democracy has been able to stay in power is Scandinavia. However, its molds are different from Iberia’s, as it has been struggling not to succumb to Europe’s rightward trend.

Unlike Portugal or Spain, where social democracy has been relatively open to immigration, Denmark’s Social Democratic Party has engaged in an anti-immigration speech, as a way to attract far-right opposition party voters. Some voters supported it and switched their votes, while others did not and left the party. Nevertheless, the trend winded to other left-wing parties, which allowed Mette Frederiksen, the current Danish Prime-Minister, to engage in alliances with the left and form a government.

In Finland, the social democrats won by a small margin with the nationalist right-wing party (the latter having a strong anti-immigration stance) ending up in second place. Still, the Social Democratic Party won the election. Nevertheless, to govern, it had to coalite with four other parties.

In Sweden, after many tries of coalition by the Social Democratic party, it was necessary for the center-left and right to unite with the former to avoid the far-right from taking power. Therefore, while in Denmark and Finland the undecided votes were determined through stances on immigration, in Sweden Social Democracy has been in power mainly due to the fear of far-right movements, encouraging moderate left and right to collide.

Poll results for S&D (Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats) member parties (March 2019)

Poll results for S&D (Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats) member parties (March 2019)


Overall, why has social democracy fallen? 

The social-democratic project mainly focuses on the fair redistribution of income and equality of material ends, which has a strong connection with unions and the working class. More eloquently put, it is a fight within capitalism for less unequal capitalism. However, in the last 30 years, there were major ideological changes, caused by technological and cultural forces that shifted production away from big factories and nation-states to other places across the globe. This deeply eroded the power of the working class (the main electorate of this ideology) and thus, the engine of social democracy stalled.

This fall in popularity is complex to explain. Primarily, since 2008, the promise of materialism has been curtailed by austerity and neoliberal measures, which many social democrats were complicit too. Secondly, the globalization led by a now hegemonic neoliberalism made working-class people feel as though they lost control of their lives, regarding economics (negative income effect of immigration on jobs and wages), identity, purpose, and meaning. There was a shift in the electorate: originally a traditional working-class population, most of these social-democratic parties are now composed of progressive, urban, and well-educated electors. With globalization, these parties participated in the de-industrialization that put them at odds with their original electorate. As the latter felt it was left with no political representation, it shifted towards far-right and populist movements that followed narratives such as blaming immigration for the faced economic problems. The austerity and contraction of the welfare state after the Great Recession affected particularly the working middle-class society. This class saw immigration and the refugees’ crisis as the perfect scapegoats, the used narratives by many radical right-wing parties.

Stating that far-right parties and immigration were the main causes of Social Democracy’s fall can be simplistic. It was the lack of political representation and economic instability that played a major role.

Percentage of votes for European Social Democratic parties (base year: 1970)

Percentage of votes for European Social Democratic parties (base year: 1970)


Sources: The Economist, The Guardian, Journal of Democracy, Politico, Washington Post

Day Trading

What is Day Trading?

Day trading is the practice of buying and selling a security on the same day. That is, an investor enters and exits the transaction on the same trading day, and no open positions are maintained overnight. It essentially occurs in any market; however, it is more prevalent in the stock and foreign exchange markets. It entails using large amounts of leverage to make the most of price fluctuations, be it a short or long trade. Given gains are made on swift price changes, investors seek out volatile and highly liquid assets.

 Day traders base their decisions on numerous indicators, news, scheduled announcements (e.g. corporate earnings, interest rate changes) while trying to predict future market inefficiencies that can be exploited for capital gain. Meanwhile, day traders try to rely as little as possible on their gut feeling and emotions, for that reason money invested is often the amount they can afford to lose.

 The most common trading strategies range from making numerous small profits on various small price changes (Scalping), to take advantage of the volatility created by news events (News-Based Trading), all the way to using algorithms to identify and make the most of small market inefficiencies (High-Frequency Trading).

 Day trading can be traced back to 1867, before computers, the internet or even electricity existed. Stock markets used the telegraph’s communication technology to create the ticker tape, the earliest electrical dedicated financial communications medium, which allowed for brokers’ transactions to be communicated. In the past, those who were able to day trade were brokers working for large institutions, which managed the firm’s money, as well as that of its clients. They had access to a direct trading line, a trading desk, great amounts of capital and highly advanced analytical software. Nevertheless, the position of day trading has extended to anyone interested, though with a more limited know-how and access to financial tools, as platforms now offer lower fees.


Different types of strategies 

Each trader usually creates his strategy based on one simple criteria: Risk. As financial markets teach us every day, trading on riskier approaches tend to end up either in disastrous trades or in absolute jackpots or, on the off chance the market shows low levels of volatility, the gains/losses can be closer to zero. However, professional and retail traders tend to focus more on volatile and high beta’s assets that, at the end of the day, can turn a soft overall market movement into a considerable profit return for the portfolio. Traders do have to consider the need to top commission fees so that the high number of trades won’t eat up the gains and leave them holding nothing.

Taking these facts into account, traders choose the strategy of which they feel mostly suits their reach. So, components as the time, money willing to involve on the portfolios, experience in trading, and the knowledge behind market movements may drive different approaches from traders.

Arbitrage Trading:

Arbitrage is solely the act of purchasing and selling a financial instrument by exploiting market inefficiencies.

Take for example the simplest arbitrage trade possible, imagine you hold Apple stocks and you realize that it is selling for $118 on the NYSE and it has a bidding price of $117.5 on the LSE.  With this you could incur in free-of-risk transactions from one Stock Exchange to another until the market gets corrected, which until then, profit would be assured. However, arbitrage opportunities are said to have gone extinct for retail investors due to the highly computerized financial software, which when any dysregulations like this occur, are promptly put to an end by the fastest market-maker that sees it and takes advantage of it with the use of advanced algorithms.

Swing Trading:

Swing trading is a type of trading that implies seeking for a big chunk of a potential price movement, instead of settling for small movements caused from natural volatility. Due to the end goal that this strategy aims to achieve, it usually forces the trader to hold the security overnight and to sell it in the following days. This method highly relies more on technical analysis rather than on fundamental analysis, considering the trader incurs in the purchase and selling of the security regardless of what he believes the intrinsic value of the asset is. A swing trader supports his decisions by looking for common patterns, moving average crossovers, cup-and-handle, as many other multi-day chart patterns in order to set the buying price and then the chosen Stop Loss/Take Profit values.

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News Trading

As the name suggests, news trading strategies implies the trader to make its judgement of pursuing a transaction based on news and rumors, either before they are announced or after. This type of strategy does not require the trader to undergo any detailed technical analysis but rather to focus its trade on the qualitative side of the fundamentals of the company, thus, in this case, to know if the announcement or the new will meet the markets expectations or, if on the other hand, might change the investors’ opinion of the companies’ value.

Merger Arbitrage

Often referred to as Hedge Fund strategy, this strategy comes from the purchasing and selling of a stock that is supposed to be acquired by a second company at a higher price. This type of strategy involves calculating the probability that either the merger is going to be settled at that given price, as it will occur at the time expected.

One controversial example in the Portuguese stock market’s sphere was the “Benfica’s takeover bid” (OPA do Benfica). Benfica filed in for a takeover bid on its “SAD” in November 2019, by willingly acquire about 30% of its shares for a price of €5, when its stock was at the time valued at €2.71. Traders soon pumped up the stock to a value close to the acquisition one, only to see that acquisition takeover overruled by the Portuguese Securities and Exchange Commission a few months after.

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Why is it so controversial?

Day trading is regarded as one of the riskiest ways to invest your money in financial markets nowadays. There is still a general idea that this type of trading is just gambling and a scheme to make bulky profits within days. Furthermore, most experienced asset managers and financial advisors have a negative opinion regarding day trading stating that the risks almost never justify the gains received. When we long at the long-turn, day trading practices tend to underperform traditional investment practices. It is true that it often includes leveraged positions that can make traders lose much more than they initially invested, and this often happens. Although traders are only forced to show their gains and losses to IRS, several studies and market research data show that their success rate is very low, only a small percentage managing to consistently deliver relevant gains, considering the high amount of brokerage fees they pay.

Advantages of Day Trading

 Although day trading practices are shown to be risky, from what we saw earlier, they are quite common today and there are reasons for it. The most advertised by day traders is the huge gains that they can make in relatively shorter periods of time. Despite depending on the amount of money that a trader is willing to risk at each trading session, the leverage mechanisms available can transform small investment sums into robust sums of money. This makes a lot of day traders believe they will be part of the small portion that is able to beat the market.


Final Thoughts

Day Trading is definitively risky by itself, it requires a filled margin account to start with and any potential profit is already cut by the brokerage fees of making many trades every day (this burden will depend on the brokerage firm). Data shows that most day traders lose money and a high percentage of the ones that have any gains have a small profit margin. With all this information in mind and considering the inherent risk, it is a legitimate way to make a significant return with low-enough initial capital and in a few days or weeks. Day trading is not for the faint of heart and is only advisable with the right market information and experience in financial markets. It ultimately falls on each investor to decide if the reward is worth the risk.

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Sources: Investopedia, BeBusinessed, MelMagazine, The Balance